Alex Ovechkin's path to #1

A new goal standard

Alex Ovechkin, "Ovi" to fans, surpassed Wayne Gretzky, “the Great One”, to become the NHL's all-time leading goal scorer by netting his 895^th career goal on April 6, 2025, during a game between the Washington Capitals and the New York Islanders at UBS Arena in New York. Ovechkin's record-breaking goal came via a signature power-play wrist shot from his favored spot on the ice, dubbed "Ovi's office", with assists from teammates, during the second period against goalie Ilya Sorokin. Remarkably, Ovechkin achieved this mark in exactly 1,487 games: the same number of games it took Gretzky to accumulate his 894 goals.

Ovechkin’s proficiency is remarkable for two reasons. The first is his remarkable longevity. As shown in the chart above, a tracker of cumulative goals scored, Wayne Gretzky was far more effective at putting pucks in the net early in his career. Through age 29 Gretzky outperformed Ovi by a wide margin. No NHL player had ever scored more goals than Gretzky at 19, or 20, or—well, at 21, Gretzky scored more goals than anyone else has scored in a single season at any age. He was on pace to become hockey’s most prolific career scorer from the second he set foot on the ice.

Ovechkin's scoring has remained remarkably consistent, while Gretzky faded with age

In his 30s, though, Mr. Gretzky was scoring just a bit better than the league average. Other prolific goal scorers tend to experience similar declines, with their production dropping off as they advance along the aging curve.

Not Ovi. He was on track to be one of the greatest goal scorers ever, certainly. But the greatest of all time? No way. Why would anyone have expected him to overtake Gretzky? Even as his skating has slowed, he still has a stunning ability to read the play, find openings and fire off exquisitely placed shots.

No one should have, but on Sunday, he did. Back in 2006, in just his second year in the NHL, he explained to reporters after a potential injury that he was fine, saying “Russian machine never breaks”.
That sums up his playing style as well as anyone can.

The other thing to note out about Ovi’s scoring is the context of the NHL. Gretzky’s record had been expected to last partly because of all the changes to the sport of ice hockey since he played. Bigger goaltenders, tougher checking and more suffocating defensive systems have yielded fewer scoring opportunities. But that hasn't slowed Ovi (see chart 2).

Gretzky’s most impressive record, for total points, which combines goals and assists, faces no threat whatsoever from Ovechkin. Mr. Gretzky had 2,857 career points. Mr. Ovechkin currently has 1,619. With a good chance that next season will be his last in the NHL, Ovi will probably finish his career with around 40% fewer points than Gretzky.